In those days, the trip to Europe took many weeks, but his arrival in the Dutch port was not the end of his long journey. This is where the timing of the new World Bank funds earmarked for Ethiopia is suspicious. Ethiopian sources noted how the PM recited a Muslim prayer to the Egyptian leader by way of giving assurance. How Addis Ababa came to look like a Chinese city China's credit line to Africa has provoked criticism.
Counterinsurgency Options for Ukraine Vincent A. If it is not already understood, Kiev should acknowledge that they cannot fight to retake Crimea and that outside support is currently non-existent for such an endeavor.
Moscow has made clear that it views the annexation of Crimea as an issue of sovereignty over its territory and the release of audio recordings of Russian presidential advisor, Sergei Glasyev, helps to validate the theory that the justification of the Crimean referendum appears to have been a ruse.
In assessing the root causes for the Donbas separatist movement and their Russian supporters a short history is useful. The historical background to the region includes its role as an industrial power base for the Soviet Union.
Having been declared independent under the fledgling Ukrainian nation over 23 years ago, it came as a surprise to its inhabitants when they realized they were no longer part of the Soviet Union.
Today, the region survives on the financial support of Russia, with Russian military leaders continuing to spearhead and fund the organization of the separatist factions. Although the people of the Donbas, to include some separatists, understand that to some extent their revolution was for the benefit of Russia, they distrusted Kiev even more.
Russian information operations that vilify Kiev as fascist, corrupt oligarchs that have no real connection with the people of the Donbas have been very successful.
Having increased cooperation with NATO and augmented defense spending because of the commodity booms and the price of oil throughRussia was content with its knowledge of the limits and drawbacks to the NATO alliance and chose pursue its own agenda in the region.
This first became evident during the Georgian invasion of In this vein, Russia has consistently shown that it is willing to use Cold War tactics of subversion and espionage, to now include the application of its cyber capabilities, in order to undermine weak governments and destabilize them for their own benefit.
At the same time that Ukraine was experiencing unrest inPutin was experiencing a drop in ratings, thus Crimea and the Donbas presented an opportunity. Putin probably made a reasonable assessment that the West would not stop him due to the asymmetry of interests - Ukraine is very important to Russia with minimal value to NATO members.
Additionally, Putin may have determined he needed an external event to consolidate his hold on power due to a 19 percent decline in his approval ratings from The Donbas is important to Russia because they can more easily influence the area and are able to maintain a veneer of legitimacy because a valid self-organized separatist insurgency.
The situation on the ground is essentially a stalemate, as the Minsk II agreement notes there is a ceasefire that most importantly requires the removal of heavy weapons from the frontline. This however, has not occurred due to disagreements over the timing of the removal and agreements by Kiev to undertake political legislation aimed at reducing corruption.
The majority of effective fighting forces are Russian, which currently number approximately 8, personnel, while the rest of the separatist fight force numbers approximately 35, personnel.
The various dimensions of the population-centric strategy must take on the characteristics of political, military, economic and development efforts, as well the continued expansion of outside great power support.
This population-centric strategy would most likely have to take place over a minimum 5-year timeline in order to make the necessary changes across the different dimensions and exhaust Russian involvement and support.
The political effort on the part of Kiev, must enforce the Minsk II agreement. Kiev must also pass more robust anti-corruption laws which include requesting the support of a UN or EU anti-corruption body.
This reform will be one of the lynchpins of the government to show international and Donbas populations their commitment to reform. Robust information operations will be key to this reform having the necessary effect and giving it an enduring character.
The government must consider that in order to end this conflict, some form of autonomy for the region will likely have to be conceded in order for there to be a peaceful reintegration of the population and reduce a Russian preponderance to interfere.
This autonomy however, will have to include physical government presence back within the region in order to reconnect the population with the government and extinguish the separatist argument that Kiev is detached. The military effort must encompass an enemy-centric component and seek to target separatist leaders from the trenches.
An aggressive push for Ukrainian Special Operations Forces SOF to increase attacks against high-value targets should accompany an aggressive political front. Adhering to the Minsk II agreements to remove heavy weapons will leave the frontline forces exposed, so aggressive targeting should be undertaken to also take out key heavy-weapons sites.
Sabotage and subversion by Ukrainian SOF must also be undertaken to reduce separatist organization and capacity. A minimal footprint, but with expanded authority to engage the enemy along the front will provide opportunities for SOF to hone their skills and sow discord among the separatist and Russian ranks.
Accompanying this effort, will be the rebuilding of government radio stations in order broadcast psychological messaging about Russian falsehoods.
The information operations dimension of this strategy should be undertaken by the military with intelligence services support. Messaging that conveys the manipulation of Donbas populations at the hands of Russia must be aggressively undertaken, specifically, the airing of the audio recordings of Glasyev planning the annexation of Crimea.
Other messaging must include the successes of the Ukrainian government in negotiating peace terms and undertaking key corruption reforms. Stories and interviews from defectors and key government figures that emphasize solidarity and shared history with the region should be shared to undermine separatist messaging.
Progress on key economic reforms should also be conveyed, along with recordings of EU support and solidarity for the region. Economic reforms will need to include the approval of a new pension law and the design and approval of a funding package to resurge Donbas industry.
Currently the price of food is less expensive on the Ukrainian side than on the Donbas side and work is limited in the Donbas, so the immediate resurgence of support to region should be a point of leverage for the Kiev government.
This agency should spearhead the efforts to rebuild in the region. Kiev should also seek to increase international aid, while the quality of the local government officials must improve.
This dimension is arguably the most important during the initial stages of the counterinsurgency strategy after the military has successfully targeted and reduced the military capacity of the separatists along the border.
The relative speed with which development projects can be instituted will provide the first tangible evidence of involvement on the part of the government that will color what the local population believes that the government will commit to.The current U.S.
ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, who is the most dispositionally interventionist among Obama’s senior advisers, had argued early for arming Syria’s rebels. Michelle Marino English Briefing for a Decent into Hell Paper “Nice to see you again, Charles.” “It is good to see you.
It has been way too long,” Charles Watkins replied to me from across the table. Counterinsurgency Options for Ukraine. Vincent A. Dueñas. The most effective strategy that Ukraine can select against Russian-backed separatists is a population-centric approach; with targeted utilization of their growing special operations units pursue militant separatist leaders in .
POLITICO Investigation: An ambitious U.S. task force targeting Hezbollah's billion-dollar criminal enterprise ran headlong into the White House's desire for a nuclear deal with Iran. About Briefing for a Descent Into Hell.
A fascinating look inside the mind of a man who is supposedly “mad.” Professor Charles Watkins of Cambridge University is a patient at a mental hospital where the doctors try with increasing drugs to . TACTICS AND TECHNIQUES OF ELECTRONIC WARFARE Electronic Countermeasures in the Air War Against North Vietnam by Bernard C.
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